Is Octopus Paul Really Psychic?

Octopus Paul shot to international fame by correctly predicting the outcome of 8 consecutive World Cup 2010 Games, including the spectacular final win by Spain over Netherlands.

But how could it do that?

Does it have some psychic ability or was its performance due to mere chance?

If we consider Octopus Paul it is an ordinary octopus like any other of its kind - at least on the face of it. Born in January 2008 at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, England, now it lives in a tank at one of the chain's centres in Oberhausen, Germany. It looks the same as other octopuses, eats the same food as others and behaves like them except that it has been predicting the results of World Cup Games!

Though perfect predictions of World Cup 2010 games have gained it international fame, Octopus Paul has been foretelling since 2008. Paul's career as an oracle began during the UEFA Euro 2008 tournament in which it correctly predicted the results of 6 out of 8 games involving Germany. It excelled itself and all other such game predicting oracles by 100% true divination of 8 out of 8 games in the World Cup 2010.

Two clear plastic boxes each containing food: a mussel or an oyster were placed before Paul. Each container was marked with the flag of a competing team. Say if one had the flag of Germany on it, the other had the flag of the team opposing Germany. The box which Paul opened first and ate from was considered to be the Paul's choice of the winner.

Psychic Power, Chance or Bias

As Paul was choosing a winner from two teams, it was sort of tossing a coin. It could be either right or wrong. Nothing special about it except that it was right every time which doesn't happen normally when you try to foretell the outcome of two equally likely events by flipping a coin. If Paul could do it, then it may be said that it did have some extraordinary powers not possessed by an ordinary animal or a human being.

Everybody doesn't agree to this of course. It is argued that though an octopus is nearly color blind it can distinguish between brightness as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation.

As such it may have been picking the winners by the shape of their flags. It picked Germany as a winner in a number of games because it had a certain bias towards the German flag. A plausible explanation of Paul's performance. But when it came to picking the winner of the semi-final between Germany and Spain, Paul apparently didn't display its liking for the German flag. It chose Spain as the winner.

German Anger

German fans who were eagerly awaiting a word from Paul about this crucial match were dismayed. However, they thought that this time Paul had hopefully gone wrong as it had in the past when predicting a match between Germany and Spain in the UEFA Euro 2008.

Come July 7 and Paul was proved to be right again to the dismay of the German supporters. Spain won the game sending Germany out of the final of the World Cup 2010. The German tempers flared up. There were threats on the life of Paul who naturally could not respond. But the Spanish prime minister did - in a light vein of course. Spanish prime minister Jose Zapatero jokingly offered to send Paul official state protection, and the Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain.

By now Paul had correctly predicted outcomes of 7 games in a row. But its ordeal not over yet. Its final test was yet to come.

The last and the biggest challenge before Paul was to predict the outcome of the World Cup 2010 final between Spain and Netherlands on 11 July.

Perhaps to pay back Spain for its support when it was under attack from Germany, Paul picked Spain. Wow. It was right again. Spain got the World Cup Trophy and Paul got the rare distinction of predicting correctly the outcomes of 8 games in a row.

Now Paul Octopus has retired from the prediction game. It has gone back to its former job of entertaining the children who visit him.

Paul may no longer be active at foretelling future but the question remains: What is behind the success of Paul - psychic ability or mere run of luck?

Well, what is your opinion?

Give your verdict::

Is Octopus Paul psychic? Yes or No